From: Subject: THE TEN POINTS OF SAGAN Date: Sun, 4 May 2008 18:06:40 +0300 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://localhost:8780/pubs/journals/kronos/vol0302/032point.htm X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.3198 THE TEN POINTS OF SAGAN

The Ten Points Of Sagan

Immanuel Velikovsky

See also note ⁽¹⁾.=20

At the AAAS Symposium that dealt with the challenge my work=20 presents to the established views in science, Prof. Carl Sagan of = Cornell=20 presented ten points.

I. The Ejection of Venus by Jupiter. Sagan calculates = the=20 energy required to overcome the escape velocity of Jupiter and = concludes,=20 "whatever the ejection mechanism--volcanoes or collision", Venus would = have=20 absorbed a portion of this energy as thermal and would be "completely" = molten.=20 "Incidentally", he says, "this would appear to be a good Velikovskian = argument=20 for the high temperature of the surface of Venus", but he adds, "this is = not his=20 argument."

In Worlds in Collision, the "natal heat of Venus" is, in = fact,=20 mentioned before other causes of the high temperature of the planet as = claimed=20 by me a decade before it was found (the section "The Thermal Balance of = Venus").=20 It is difficult to see what makes this pro-argument into a = counter-argument,=20 even if I had not spoken of the natal heat of the protoplanet.

In his underlying calculations, Sagan estimates the mass of Venus and = the=20 escape velocity from Jupiter "which is about 70 km/sec." Sagan is = mistaken: the=20 escape velocity from Jupiter is not 70 but 59 km/sec., from which figure = three=20 quantities need to be subtracted:

1. The great rotational speed of Jupiter at the latitude of the = disruptive=20 effect--on the equator the speed is ca. 13 km/sec., and at the 20=B0 = south=20 latitude where the Red Spot is centered, somewhat less.

2. The difference m in km/sec. between the=20 present--resultant--rotational speed of Jupiter and the speed that it = had before=20 fission (the conservation of angular momentum requires that Jupiter = slowed its=20 rotation upon ejecting Venus).

3. The difference n in km/sec. between the 100% escape = velocity that=20 determines an orbit extending to infinity (and out of the solar system) = and 71%=20 of it which is the minimum necessary to carry the escaping object on an=20 elliptical orbit.

In squaring the erroneous figure (70 km/sec.) instead of a much = smaller=20 figure, Sagan squared an error and came up with wrong results. (It seems = that=20 Sagan borrowed the mistake from Lloyd Motz in his paper in Yale = Scientific=20 Magazine, the April 1967 issue of which was dedicated to "Venus--A = Youthful=20 Planet"; but there the mistake was also corrected in the article by = myself that=20 followed.)⁽²⁾

In his paper Sagan does not question the possibility of generating = the great=20 amount of energy involved in the birth of Venus, and only stresses that = it must=20 have become all molten before it solidified.

The required energy for the birth of Venus, erroneously calculated by = Sagan,=20 was not overlooked by Lyttleton in his theory of the origin of Venus and = other=20 terrestrial planets from Jupiter by spin-off. With its present rate of = spin=20 Jupiter's escape velocity is certainly high, and was an impediment to = the=20 Vsekhsvyatskii theory of the birth of comets from Jupiter by volcanic = eruption.=20 In my reconstruction of the past the fission of Jupiter followed, though = not=20 immediately, from a close encounter between the giant planets Jupiter = and Saturn=20 (Worlds in Collision, p. 373) followed by collection by Jupiter = of the=20 spread matter of Saturn; electrostatic forces could have played a = role.

II. Repeated Collisions Among the Earth, Venus and Mars. = The=20 statistical argument of marksmanship was used twenty-five years ago by = Cecilia=20 Payne-Gaposchkin of Harvard (Popular Astronomy, June 1950) and = the=20 following year by John O. Stewart of Princeton (Harper's, June = 1951). I=20 answered Stewart in the same issue of Harper's. "The image of=20 'marksmanship' is not well derived ... If a comet with a tail 100 = million miles=20 long should move in the ecliptic, no good fortune would keep the planets = from=20 passing through its fabric; at its every passage inside the terrestrial = orbit,=20 the Earth would have a better than 60 to 40 chance of going through its = tail or=20 head."

Since it took centuries or millennia before the Earth came into = collision=20 with the protoplanet's trailing part (the encounter did not, as some = critics=20 assumed, immediately follow the fission of Jupiter), I need to explain = why it=20 took so long to happen. If the place of Venus' separation was the Red = Spot=20 (centered at 20 southern latitude of Jupiter), the protoplanet would = have moved=20 originally in a plane inclined to the ecliptic, and would only = periodically have=20 crossed it - to this effect we have the testimony of various ancient = sources,=20 like the Chinese Soochow Astronomical Chart (Worlds in = Collision,=20 Section "Tao" and others).

In his statistical approach, Sagan considers all events described in=20 Worlds in Collision as independent of one another, whereas they = are=20 clearly interdependent, and indeed each of them in turn increased the = likelihood=20 that the next would follow. His calculations, therefore (dealing with=20 independent, direct collisions instead of the much more = probable=20 interdependent near-collisions described in my book), yielded = the=20 staggering odds of 10²³-to-one against my thesis. (The = typescript=20 version of Sagan's lecture, distributed at the AAAS meeting and used by=20 reporters, even though it was plainly marked "Draft", contained the = figure=20 10⁹-to-one; this was altered to 10²³-to-one by = hand, but=20 the basis for the inked-in change is not obvious, since the "Appendix" = that=20 Sagan referred to was never produced.) Sagan's conclusion that odds of=20 "10²³-to-one" make any hypotheses "untenable" was widely = quoted in=20 press accounts of the symposium.

It should also be borne in mind that the basic subject to be = addressed by=20 opponents is "did it happen" and not "how likely was it". Events of = perhaps much=20 less probability have occurred. Discovery of two new comets on one = photographic=20 plate is unlikely, but has happened.

III. The Earth's Rotation. The problem whether there = are=20 available forces, even at near contact with another body (Venus), to = bring the=20 Earth to a rotational stasis is discussed.

Sagan [1976] says: "But it is easy to see (Appendix 2) that a gradual = deceleration of the Earth's rotation at 10^-2 g or so could = occur in a=20 period of much less than a day. Then no one would fly off and even = stalactites=20 and other delicate geomorphological forms could have survived. Likewise, = we see=20 in Appendix 2 that the energy required to brake the Earth is not enough = to melt=20 it, although it would result in a noticeable⁽³⁾=20 increase in temperature: the oceans would have been raised to the = boiling point=20 of water, an event which seems to have been overlooked by Velikovsky's = ancient=20 sources.)"⁽⁴⁾

Sagan continues: "These are, however, not the most serious objections = to=20 Velikovsky's exegesis of Joshua. Perhaps the most serious objection is = rather at=20 the other end: how does the Earth get started up again, rotating at=20 approximately the same rate of spin?"

It is salutary that Sagan dropped the argument often heard concerning = the=20 "fly-off of the army of Joshua" and also the breaking of stalactites, = both used=20 among others by Asimov and actually by Sagan himself as recently as his = course=20 lecture on "Velikovsky and Venus" at Cornell on March 28, 1973. Appendix = 2 was=20 not supplied with the text of his AAAS paper.

As to the question how the Earth gets started again, I was not = unaware of the=20 problem; therefore, at every occasion where I spoke of deceleration of = the=20 Earth's rotation, I also suggested that "if rotation persisted = undisturbed, the=20 terrestrial axis may have tilted in the presence of a strong magnetic = field, so=20 that the sun appeared to lose for hours its diurnal movement" = (Worlds in=20 Collision, Section "The Most Incredible Story", where I also = promised to=20 discuss the question in the "Epilogue"). There ("Epilogue") I presented = the=20 problem and stated that the "cessation of the diurnal rotation could = also be=20 caused--and most efficiently--by the earth's passing through a strong = magnetic=20 field; eddy currents would be generated in the surface of the earth, = which in=20 turn would give rise to magnetic fields, and these, interacting with the = external field, would slow down the earth or bring it to a rotational = stasis."=20 This sentence in Worlds in Collision I wrote after = consulting=20 with Lloyd Motz.

I referred in general to the strength of the field necessary to slow = down the=20 diurnal motion or to change the inclination of the terrestrial axis, but = gave no=20 figures; the figures, as approximately calculated by von Weizsacker in a = personal meeting in January 1950, shortly before Worlds in Collision = went to press, I gave in my printed debate with Stewart without = referring=20 to Weizsacker.⁽⁵⁾

Sagan correctly observes that magnetic dipole forces would increase = as the=20 inverse cube of the distance. He points to the very small magnetic field = of=20 Venus. However, this is no indication as to what Venus' charge and = magnetic=20 field amounted to before the events described in Worlds in = Collision,=20 when great discharges between the protoplanet and its trailing part = took=20 place (Section "The Battle in the Sky") and when Venus came into near = contact=20 with Earth, Jupiter (Section "The Blazing Star"), and Mars.

Publishing Worlds in Collision, I was cognizant of the = problem of=20 the renewal of terrestrial rotation upon slowing down, if it really took = place:=20 "If the interaction with the magnetic field caused the earth to renew = its=20 spinning, it would almost certainly not be renewed at the same speed. If = the=20 magma inside the globe continued to rotate at a different angular = velocity than=20 the shell, it would tend to set the earth rotating slowly" ("Epilogue" = to=20 Worlds in Collision).

I also discussed elsewhere the possibility of the Earth passing = through two=20 halves of a magnetic field, with the effect that the passage through the = second=20 half (of opposing polarity) would nearly correct the retardation caused = by the=20 passage through the first half.

The phenomenon observed in 1959 and 1960 by Andr=E9 Danjon, Director = of the=20 Paris Observatory, that after solar flares the Earth slowed down in = diurnal=20 rotation by milli-seconds, but thereafter started to speed up by = microseconds,=20 may contain the solution to the problem. Danjon's finds were questioned = because=20 of their revolutionary significance, but later confirmed in more recent=20 observations. B. Schatzmann showed that the slowing down was due to=20 electromagnetic, not thermal, effects.⁽⁶⁾

Prof. Irving Michelson of the Illinois Institute of Technology, in = his paper=20 at the same AAAS Symposium, found that "the energy required to turn the = Earth's=20 magnetic dipole through 180 (interchanging the positions of the north = and south=20 poles) happened to be equal to that of a moderately strong geomagnetic = storm"=20 (Science, vol. 185, 107-8, 19 July 1974).

Sagan writes: "There is no sign in rock magnetization of terrestrial = rocks=20 ever having been subjected to such strong field strengths." In this = Sagan errs:=20 The problem that vexes the geophysicists is exactly this--how to explain = the=20 remanent magnetism of terrestrial rocks and lavas which is in great = excess of=20 what the global magnetism could have imparted in them when they were = cooling=20 below the Curie Point; the excess is several hundredfold and even = thousandfold=20 and very much has been written on the subject. As to the most recent = instance of=20 reversal of the geomagnetic field, the work done by the originator of=20 paleomagnetic studies, G. Folgheraiter, on Attic and Etruscan vases, = indicates a=20 reversal in the eighth century before the present era (P. L. Mercanton, = in=20 Archives des sciences physiques et naturelles [Quatrieme = Periode, Tome=20 XXIII, Geneva, 19071).

IV. Terrestrial Geology and Lunar Craters. Concluding = this=20 point, Sagan asks where is the geological evidence of wholesale = transgressions=20 of the oceans and seas; "and what of the archaeological and = paleontological=20 evidence? Where are the extensive faunal extinctions due to such = floods?"

The evidence was cited by me on 300 pages of Earth in = Upheaval, a=20 book the reading of which is indispensable for the discussion of this = and other=20 geophysical problems raised by my work. Omitting purposely any reference = to all=20 literary heritage of ancient civilizations, Earth in Upheaval = brings=20 geological and paleontological evidence from all parts of the world by = culling=20 it from the scientific literature of authoritative field studies.

The other question raised in Point IV is the question why the Moon = has so=20 many craters due to meteorites, the Earth, however, so few. In the first = place,=20 I do not subscribe to the, till recently, largely accepted view that the = lunar=20 circular formations are all due to impacts of meteorites. I attribute = many of=20 them to interplanetary discharges, especially those of the "rayed" = appearance,=20 like Aristarchus or Tycho. While not excluding the origin of some of = them in=20 "meteoric" collisions, I would attribute the major part to the bubbling = activity=20 of the surface of the Moon; this view of bubbling (first offered, as = also the=20 impact theory of the "craters", by R. Hooke in the 17th century) finds = new=20 converts in modern times. In my Forum lecture of 1953, 1 drew attention = to=20 numerous lunar domes as unburst bubbles, a view shared by Dr. H. Percy = Wilkins,=20 the late selenographer.⁽⁷⁾

The Moon, smaller than the Earth, must have suffered, in near = collisions,=20 greater thermal effects (also, the Moon has no oceans or ice caps which = could=20 absorb as latent heat much of the thermal energy developed in = near-collisions);=20 therefore, Sagan's statistical approach based on impacts of meteorites = would not=20 apply; the Moon has also no atmosphere and the bubbling activity could = result in=20 greater circular formations. The impact theory requires that meteorites = or=20 asteroids, arriving from many sides, never created on the Moon = pronounced oval=20 features like the Carolina bays, thought to be caused by such = impacts.

I also attributed the surface features on the Moon not only to the = last near=20 planetary contact, but to earlier catastrophic events as well = (Worlds in=20 Collision, Section "The Moon and Its Craters", p. 362: "The great=20 formations of craters, mountains, rifts, and plains of lava on the moon = were=20 formed not only in the upheavals described in this book, but also in = those which=20 took place in earlier times."). As to the time of the last heating of = the Moon,=20 I suggested thermoluminescence tests from cores three feet deep (New = York=20 Times, early city edition of 21 July 1969, the night man first = stepped on=20 the Moon). My discussion as to when the last heating of the lunar rocks = took=20 place is found in a debate with Prof. Derek York, one of the principal = lunar=20 rock investigators, on the pages of Pens=E9e I (May, 1972), pp. = 18-21.=20 Prof. R. Walker of Washington University, St. Louis, found that the last = thermal=20 event on the Moon was as recent as 10,000 years ago; however, the = presence of=20 radioactive elements in the lunar regolith could reduce the result by a = factor=20 of two or three.

S. Tolansky, in a paper in Science (Vol. 176, 12 May 1972),=20 discusses interferometric evidence of lunar glass and arrives at the = conclusion=20 that the glass, and thus the lunar surface in general, must have = undergone some=20 shock, most probably thermal, at a temperature near 700=B0C. (The = melting of the=20 rocks requires, depending on their structure, temperatures of over = 1200=B0C.=20 However, many metals have melting points below 700=B0C.)

V. Chemistry and Biology of the Terrestrial = Planets.=20 Sagan accuses me of taking "no note of the fact that Jupiter is composed = primarily of hydrogen and helium while the atmosphere of Venus . . . is = composed=20 almost entirely of carbon dioxide" and maintains that, according to my = work,=20 "there are carbohydrates on both Jupiter and Venus". He also alleges = that I=20 confuse hydrocarbons and carbohydrates.

I have not given cause in my works for such an allegation of = confusion. I=20 described from ancient sources the bituminous outpouring on both = hemispheres=20 when the Earth was in its first near contact with the protoplanet Venus. = Mesoamerican sources are very vivid; the Morning Star is regularly = represented=20 as disgorging "burning water" (the title of a book by L. S=E9journ=E9, = 1956).

How could heavier molecules of hydrocarbon result from methane and = ammonia,=20 known constituents of the Jovian atmosphere? I discussed the problem in=20 Worlds in Collision (Section "The Gases of Venus"), where I = wrote: "If=20 the petroleum that poured down on the earth on its contact with the = comet Venus=20 was formed by means of electrical discharges from hydrogen and gaseous = carbon,=20 Venus must still have petroleum because of the discharges that passed, = as we=20 assume, between the head and tail of the comet when it was intercepted = by the=20 earth and in other celestial contacts."

I referred also to the known constituents of the Jovian = atmosphere--the gases=20 methane and ammonia--and drew the "indirect conclusion" that = hydrocarbons would=20 be found on Jupiter, too.

My suggestion in Worlds in Collision that, by electrical = discharges=20 in a mixture of hydrogen and gaseous carbon, and also in a mixture of = ammonia=20 and methane, heavier hydrocarbons may result, was made before Miller's=20 well-known experiment with electrical discharges, in which he obtained = amino=20 acids, and Urey's suggestion that led to it.

A. T. Wilson, in 1960, succeeded in creating heavier hydrocarbons by=20 electrical discharges in a mixture of methane and ammonia (Nature, = 17=20 December, 1960); he also concluded (Nature, 6 October, 1962) = that=20 petroleum is of cosmic origin.

Oro and Han (Science, 153, 1966, 1393) proposed that = "aromatic=20 hydrocarbons and other organic compounds may have been formed as a = result of=20 collisions of comets with planets or satellites such as the moon and = collisions=20 of large meteorites with planets containing reducing atmospheres."

Furthermore, "some of the petroleum from the Venus encounter may have = originated on Jupiter. W. F. Libby has suggested (seminar at University = of=20 Houston, July 12, 1966) that 'oil' is raining on Jupiter, and Oro and = Han cite=20 the possibility that petroleum is now being formed in localized areas of = Jupiter" (Pens=E9e V, Fall, 1973, p. 23).⁽⁸⁾

Before the space probes the general expectation among astronomers was = that=20 free nitrogen constitutes ca. 90% of the atmosphere of Venus; therefore, = it was=20 a disappointment when this was not substantiated in space probes and = instead the=20 atmosphere of Venus was found to consist of up to 90% of carbon dioxide. = The=20 question was asked by many--what is the source of such a large = proportion of=20 carbon dioxide? Already in 1955 Fred Hoyle assumed that: "Carbon was = much more=20 likely to be initially present in combination with hydrogen, not with = oxygen. .=20 . . If all the carbon was initially locked away in the higher = hydrocarbons, an=20 oxidation process was necessary in order to produce the carbon dioxide = that we=20 now observe. It is possible that the oxygen derived from the = dissociation of the=20 water was all absorbed in the oxidation of hydrocarbons." Hoyle = postulated=20 oceans of oil on Venus; I, however, claimed that Venus must be very hot = and any=20 hydrocarbons, if present in lower levels, must be gaseous.

VI. Manna. Having explained how hydrocarbons could = result from=20 hydrogen and carbon, or also from methane and ammonia, by electrical = discharges,=20 I wondered what process was at action in the assumed conversion of = hydrocarbons=20 into the edible substance known to the Israelites as "manna" or "bread = from the=20 sky", to the Greeks as "ambrosia", to the Hindus as "madhu", or to the=20 Scandinavian people as "a sweet morning dew" which sustained the few = survivors=20 of the cosmic disaster.

I was attacked on this score by Cecilia Payne-Gaposchkin, who claimed = that if=20 a conversion of hydrocarbons into edible products were possible, the = question of=20 feeding the hungry of the world would have been solved. I replied in=20 Harper's (June 1951), after consultation with the late V. = Komarewsky of=20 the Illinois Institute of Technology, an international authority on = catalysis=20 and petroleum, that: "After the catastrophe, clouds of thick dust and = vapor=20 enveloped the earth for many years. It is possible that in the dust and = vapors,=20 as a result of bacterial activity, organic compounds were formed--for = instance,=20 carbohydrates."

In subsequent years a process was developed (and used by the = Agricultural=20 Administration of the United Nations) to convert hydrocarbons (asphalt) = into=20 edible products by bacterial action.⁽⁹⁾

Interestingly, Sagan in recent years assumes the fall of "manna" from = clouds=20 on Jupiter⁽¹⁰⁾=20 (whereas in Point V he ascribes to me the notion that "there are = carbohydrates=20 on both Jupiter and Venus"). In his recent book, The Cosmic = Connection,=20 he also says that: "there are organic molecules--for example, some with = a=20 complex ring structure--that would be quite stable under the conditions = of=20 Venus" (p. 92).

Sagan applies calculations as to how much manna was necessary to feed = the=20 surviving population of the world after a global catastrophe on the = assumption=20 that manna did not fall only in the Sinai peninsula, and assumes that = the entire=20 solar system must have been permeated by organic material. These = calculations=20 have a tinge of a debate among scholastics. According to the ancient = traditions,=20 the quantity of "manna" deposited was truly large (Worlds in = Collision,=20 Section "Rivers of Milk and Honey"). The finds of organic material in = meteorites=20 and hydrocarbon spectra of comets are subjects possibly related. But = Venus did=20 not need to spray the solar system with "manna", that as I assumed = developed by=20 bacterial action in the clouds that caused the "Shadow of Death" = (Jeremiah) or=20 "Goetterdaemmerung", nor with hydrocarbons, the raw material from which = the=20 manna was probably synthesized.

Sagan deals also with the biology of the terrestrial planets. Ever = since 1950=20 the content of the Section "Baal Zevuv (Beelzebub)", Lord of the Flies = or=20 Lucifer, in Worlds in Collision has been a favorite target of=20 criticism. There I described the plague of vermin observed in China, = India,=20 Arabia, Egypt, and many other places, connected with catastrophic = events, as the=20 Earth was passing through the trailing part of the cometary body that I=20 recognized as the protoplanet Venus. I wrote: "The internal heat = developed by=20 the earth and the scorching gases of the comet were in themselves = sufficient to=20 make the vermin of the earth propagate at a very feverish rate. Some of = the=20 plagues, like the plague of the frogs ("the land brought forth frogs") = or of the=20 locusts, must be ascribed to such causes."

Then I wrote: "The question arises here whether or not the comet = Venus=20 infested the earth with vermin which it may have carried in its trailing = atmosphere in the form of larvae together with stones and gases. It is=20 significant that all around the world peoples have associated the planet = Venus=20 with flies." I brought quite a few examples of the worship of the god of = the=20 fly; the Aztecs thought that the comet--Venus--contaminated the Earth = with=20 larvae; the fly also became the emblem carried by the Egyptian priests = in Egypt=20 after the Middle Kingdom.

I expressed myself cautiously that "the persistence with which the = planet=20 Venus is associated with a fly in the traditions of the peoples of both=20 hemispheres ... create[s] the impression that the flies in the tail of = Venus=20 were not merely the earthly brood, swarming in heat like other vermin, = but=20 guests from another planet." After remarking that the idea of the = arrival of=20 living organisms (microorganisms) from interplanetary space is not new, = I wrote:=20 "Whether there is truth in this supposition of larval contamination of = the earth=20 is anyone's guess." I left open the question whether Venus and also = Jupiter may=20 be populated by vermin, saying that "the ability of many small insects = and their=20 larvae to endure great cold and heat and to live in an atmosphere devoid = of=20 oxygen renders not entirely improbable" this hypothesis.

Sagan, ascribing to me the falling of mice and frogs from the clouds = of Venus=20 (his Cornell lecture of March 28, 1973) or frogs (press conference of = December=20 2, 1973), violates what I explicitly said in my book (mice, of course, = were not=20 among the Egyptian plagues), despite his present saying how I = "approvingly"=20 quoted the Bundahis, where Ahriman is said to disseminate all = kind of=20 vermin over the earth.

Sagan omits any reference to possible larval contamination = and=20 speaks of fried flies.

The question of what kind of life should be looked for in space = investigation=20 of the solar system was the subject of an invited lecture by myself = before the=20 scientific staff of the Exobiology Section of Ames Space Research Center = in=20 1972. 1 discussed Venus (microorganisms in the clouds), Mars = (microorganisms=20 pathogenic to man), Jupiter (possibly vermin) and Saturn (low plant = life). The=20 mutations connected with transplant from one habitat to another under = violent=20 thermal and radioactive conditions need to be considered for the = possible=20 metamorphoses in the life forms themselves and in their biological = adaptations.=20 Sagan, on several occasions, speculated about life on Jupiter and also = proposed=20 some peculiar life forms for Mars--primitive organisms the size of large = terrestrial mammals, and capable of hibernating for thousands of = years.

Flies appear in the paleontological picture as the most recent among = insect=20 forms.

VII. The Clouds of Venus. This point actually deals = with the=20 same problem as points V and VI, but with an emphasis on spectroscopy. = Sagan=20 claims that the clouds are composed of sulfuric acid and that there is = no=20 evidence for hydrocarbons or other organic molecules.

The question of the presence of hydrocarbons or of organic molecules = in the=20 thick cloud cover of Venus was discussed by me at length in my answer to = Prof.=20 William T. Plummer, who in the March 14, 1969 issue of Science = raised=20 objections upon comparing the features between 2.3 and 2.5 microns (near = infrared) with the spectra of a few selected hydrocarbons, himself = claiming that=20 the spectrum in this wavelength range shows features accountable by = water ice=20 crystals. Sagan, too, considered water and ice crystals to be the main = component=20 of the cloud cover (Carl Sagan, "The Venus Greenhouse", Sky &=20 Telescope, July, 1960; James B. Pollack and Carl Sagan, "The Case = for Ice=20 Clouds on Venus", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 73 No. = 18,=20 Sept. 15, 1968).

In my answer to Plummer I stressed among other things that the = refractive=20 index of water or ice crystals is definitely lower than the 1.44 = observed from=20 the upper layer of the clouds. The claim of ice crystals and water = comprising=20 the clouds was subsequently rejected primarily on this very = ground of=20 refractive index (J. E. Hansen and A. Arking, Science Vol. 71, = 19 Feb.=20 197 1, pp. 669 ff.).

In the high temperature of Venus, one would not expect hydrocarbons=20 (petroleum derivatives) to remain for thousands of years free from = chemical=20 reactions; in the clouds I took into account the possibility of changes = due to=20 bacterial action, photosynthesis, or electrical discharges.

The heavy molecules could be below the reflective level of the = clouds. I was=20 careful in expression: "On the basis of this research, I assume that = Venus must=20 be rich in petroleum gases .... the spectrogram of Venus may disclose = the=20 presence of hydrocarbon gases in its atmosphere, if these gases lie in = the upper=20 part of the atmosphere where the rays of the sun penetrate" (Worlds = in=20 Collision, Section "The Gases of Venus"). Fourteen years later, in = 1964,=20 Sagan subscribed to such a possibility in his article "The Atmosphere of = Venus"=20 from The Origin and Evolution of Atmospheres and Oceans (ed. P. = J.=20 Brancazio and A. G. W. Cameron; John Wiley and Son, publ.). "The fact = that [at=20 the level of the clouds, low vapor-pressure organic compounds like CH4, = C2H2,=20 C2H4, etc.] have not been successfully identified does not entirely = exclude to=20 possible existence of some hydrocarbons in the lower atmosphere. . . = ."

As admitted by Plummer, the region 2.3 to 2.5 microns is most = unsuitable for=20 observing organic molecules because of interference by CO₂ = and other=20 molecules. This, too, I stressed in Worlds in Collision, = Section "The=20 Gases of Venus", suggesting, at the advice of W. S. Adams of Mount = Wilson=20 Observatory, to wait until "the technique of photography in the infrared = is=20 perfected so that hydrocarbon bands can be differentiated" for = establishing the=20 possible presence of organic molecules. He also suggested the use of the = technique and instruments applied by petroleum industrial research.

But, I would be bolder today and point to my reply to Burgstahler = (Pens=E9e=20 VI, Winter, 1973-74, pp. 31-37.). In the table (see Fig. = 1)=20 supplied, I showed that "in the near infrared a few hydrocarbons tested = by=20 Plummer (out of tens of thousands of hydrocarbons and other organic = molecules=20 possible) produced reflection spectrum features which are 'not observed, = or=20 rather, observed less strongly in the near-infrared spectrum of Venus'=20 (Burgstahler) and this despite the admitted fact that C-H bands would be = obscured in this range by CO2 bands, this therefore being an inferior = range for=20 the identification of hydrocarbons on Venus (Burgstahler)."

In 1973 Young and Young (Icarus 18, pp. 564-582) wrote that = certain=20 features in the deep infrared (the 11.2 micron band) could be attributed = to=20 sulfuric acid. To meet, however, the refractive index (1.44), the acid = was=20 assumed to be diluted in 25% of water. This last assumption was actually = unnecessary: Prinn (Science 182, pp. 1132ff.) supported Young's = claim,=20 but showed that only a very small part of the clouds was suggested to = contain=20 sulfuric acid.

It is clear that besides the features at 11.2 microns and generally = in the=20 8-13 micron region, the entire gamut of the spectrum of Venus' clouds in = the=20 ultraviolet, near infrared, and infrared, cannot be accounted for by = sulfuric=20 acid. Kuiper and his colleagues have argued that sulfuric acid is = incompatible=20 with various chemical conditions on Venus--its presence is incompatible = with=20 ammonia detected by the Russians deeper into the atmosphere in direct = chemical=20 analysis in a search for this compound. On the other hand, I could show = that the=20 features are those of organic molecules, and this by quoting Burgstahler = himself; I was also confirmed in this view by Prof. Fowler Bush of the=20 University of North Carolina at Charlotte and Prof. Bill Harris of = Furman=20 University, both working on the infrared spectra of organic = molecules.

Peter R. Ballinger, a researcher in organic chemistry, also had this = to say=20 about the possibility of sulfuric acid in Venus' clouds: "It is likely = that=20 sulfuric acid would be gradually decomposed by solar radiation of = ultraviolet=20 and shorter wavelength, particularly in the presence of iron compounds = (F. S.=20 Dainton and F. T. Jones, Transactions of the Faraday Society, = 61=20 [1965], 1681) to give hydrogen and oxygen. This process would also be = expected=20 to result in the preferential retention of deuterium, as discussed in = another=20 context... Because of this and other chemical reactions, sulfuric = acid might=20 well have a relatively short lifetime, consistent with a recent = installation of the planet in its present orbit.

"The presence of sulfuric acid in the clouds of Venus is still only=20 hypothetical. The ratio of water to acid is chosen so as to agree with = the=20 observed refractive index, and the infrared spectrum of this mixture, = while=20 consistent with that of the atmosphere, does not completely account for = it"=20 (Pens=E9e VII, Spring, 1974, p. 49 - emphasis added).

The yellowish color of Venus was ascribed to iron molecules absorbing = light=20 in the ultraviolet. Sulfur and iron in the atmosphere of Venus was = claimed by me=20 over fifteen years before these elements were claimed there by Young and = Young.=20 In answer to my inquiry "whether the spectral analysis gives reason to = assume=20 that Jupiter and Venus alike have iron and sulphur in an ionized state", = Prof.=20 W. S. Adams wrote me in a letter dated July 25, 1955: "Ionized iron and = sulphur=20 could not possibly be present in the atmospheres of Jupiter and Venus, = because=20 their spectra are atomic and would require very high temperatures for = their=20 production."

Of course, sulfuric acid could not be formed in the absence of = sulfur. I had=20 my reasons for my early claiming these two elements on Venus: Iron must = have=20 been present in the trailing part of Venus because of particles "of = ferruginous=20 or other soluble pigment" that caused the bloody coloring of the seas, = rivers,=20 and landscapes (Worlds in Collision, Section "The Red World");=20 hydrocarbons could not be expected to remain in their original form in = the high=20 heat of Venus below the clouds (I spoke of fires on Venus in the = presence of=20 oxygen), CO₂ and H₂O being the ensuing = molecules--some of=20 the oxygen of water recycled but some also fused into sulfur (two atoms = of=20 oxygen resulting in one atom of sulfur) in discharges of great = potentials. The=20 quantity of hydrocarbons still remaining in the clouds could be a clock = to show=20 how long the process has been going on.

After the AAAS Symposium, the data of the Mariner X probe were made = known=20 (Science, 1974); it was announced that the upper atmosphere of = Venus=20 contains the four elements: carbon, hydrogen, oxygen and helium. The = first three=20 elements are indicative of the possible presence of carbohydrates in the = clouds=20 of Venus; Sagan, however, in the discussion at the AAAS maintained that = no=20 oxygen is found in the upper atmosphere of Venus.

If the clouds of Venus consist of oil of vitriol (sulfuric acid), no = algae=20 that Sagan proposed to seed there, to break down the carbon dioxide and = make=20 Venus habitable, could persist.

Future investigation (possibly by a scoop-carrying probe) will show = whether=20 the clouds of Venus contain organic material: Wildt's idea of = formaldehyde=20 (Astrophysical Journal 92 (1940), pp. 247-255) in Venus' = atmosphere was=20 duly reported by me in Worlds in Collision, Wildt upon inquiry = in 1946=20 answered me that "the absorption spectrum of Venus' atmosphere cannot be = interpreted as resulting from gaseous hydrocarbons, but gives definite = evidence=20 of large amounts of carbon dioxide." Therefore Sagan's reference to = Wildt as the=20 first to claim hydrocarbons on Venus is incorrect.

Sagan's discussion of the NASA report after Mariner 11 announcing the = presence of hydrocarbons on Venus was based on the claim of Prof. L. = Kaplan (to=20 whom Sagan refers), whose publications and memoranda preceding = the=20 Mariner 11 probe refer to the fact that the cloud has similar physical=20 properties in all layers, with temperatures at the top -25F and at the = bottom=20 +200F, which could be, in his original opinion, due to the polymerized = radical=20 C-H.

Three months after the AAAS Symposium, Prof. James B. Pollack, et = al.=20 published in Icarus 23, 8-26 (1974) a series of = aircraft-based=20 measurements of Venus' reflection spectrum between 1.2 and 4.1 microns. = Their=20 graph (fig. 2) shows a "modest decline in reflectivity" in the range = between 2.3=20 and 2.4 microns, the exact range, characteristic of hydrocarbons, which=20 according to Plummer's argument in 1969 failed to show a decline--by = which the=20 presence of hydrocarbons in the clouds was said to be disproven. In the = abstract=20 of their paper the authors ascribe the decline to "impurities in the = sulfuric=20 acid droplets". On a later page (p. 20) they refer to Plummer's article = with the=20 comment that "hydrocarbons show a feature near 2.4 m which is = not=20 present in either our spectra or that of Kuiper and Forbes (1967)". Yet, = as=20 said, their own graph shows unmistakably the missing feature in the = range that=20 is characteristic for hydrocarbons.

VIII. The Temperature of Venus. Sagan starts this = section with=20 the discussion of the temperature of Mars and accuses me of wrongly = stating that=20 according to the data known before the publication of Worlds in = Collision=20 in 1950, "Mars emits more heat than it receives from the sun" = (Worlds=20 in Collision, "The Thermal Balance of Mars"). Sagan says: "This = statement=20 is however dead wrong."

But Sky and Telescope, March 1961, reported Sagan's opinion: = "It has=20 long been known that the observed surface temperature of Mars is about = 30=20 degrees centigrade higher than would result from the sun shining on an = airless=20 planet at its distance." Sagan wished to ascribe the 30 degree = difference to a=20 greenhouse effect produced by the very rarified atmosphere on Mars and = for this=20 he assumed the presence of a certain (not proven) quantity of water = (vapor? at=20 what temperature?) besides carbon dioxide.

As I indicated in Worlds in Collision, Mars, being smaller = than=20 Earth, and having more surface area per unit of mass, must have cooled = down more=20 quickly than the Earth, if created about the same time and not having=20 experienced any disturbances since then. The probable explanation of any = excess=20 of heat on Mars I saw in its having been more disturbed in the near = collision=20 with Venus or near approaches to Earth, bodies more massive than itself. = I=20 finished by saying: "interplanetary electric discharges could also = initiate=20 atomic fissions with ensuing radioactivity and emission of heat." The = planetary=20 probes proved the existence of hot spots, ascribed to radioactivity, on = the Moon=20 and on Mars.

Between the theoretical and observed temperature values of=20 Mars--reflecting as a grey body--there is an actual excess of = heat=20 given off by Mars (table accompanying the article "Mars", volume 8,=20 Encyclopaedia of Science, McGraw Hill, 1971).

At an earlier page of his paper (point V), Sagan claims that the = surface of=20 Mars as photographed by space probes is a proof that Mars was not = involved in=20 celestial disturbances. This statement violates facts and logic.

I was in conflict with the accepted views among astronomers when I = wrote in=20 Worlds in Collision ("Planet Mars") that it is a dead planet, = that if=20 there were ever higher forms of life there, they already saw their Last = Day.=20 "Their work could not survive either. The 'canals' on Mars appear to be = a result=20 of the play of geological forces that answered with rifts and cracks the = outer=20 forces acting in collisions."

But many an astronomer to the very end maintained that intelligent = life may=20 exist on Mars. It was a great surprise for the scientific world when the = photographs made by Mariner IV disclosed a moon-like terrain; closer = photographs=20 by Mariner IX showed remarkably clearly how true my view was. Crater = formations=20 occupied large portions of the surface, seas of lava occupied an even = larger=20 area; cracks, one of them 1100 miles along the surface, and a tremendous = structure--Nix Olympica--looking like a place of direct collision could = also be=20 seen. How could these finds be turned into arguments against my = thesis?

	Refractive Index	Volatility and Chemical Compatibility	Ultraviolet Spectrum And Color	Near Infrared 2.1-2.5 Microns	Infrared 3.2-3.5 Microns	Deep infrared 8-15 Microns
H y d r o=20 c a r b o n s	"Various organic compounds, = including certain=20 types of unsaturated hydrocarbons, have refractive indices and = volatility=20 properties that are reasonably consistent with those of the cloud=20 particles."	"Some [organic compounds, including=20 unsaturated hydrocarbons] possess at least part of the ultraviolet = absorption displayed by Venus"	"The many intense CO₂ = lines in this=20 spectral region [of Venus] make detection of the generally weak = C-H (and=20 related N-H & O-H) overtone and combination bands extremely = difficult=20 and uncertain. Such bands often coincide with positions of = CO₂=20 bands"	"In the infrared proper (2.5 to 15 = microns),=20 hydrocarbons and their derivatives display much stronger C-H = absorption=20 bands than in the near infra-red."
"Olefinic substances [Hydrocarbons]... could = havethe=20 observed refractive index."		"In particular, the Strong fundamental C-H = (bands) in=20 the 3.2-3.5 microns region are especially useful for = identification. This=20 portion of the [Venus] spectrum shows intense absorption, only a = small=20 portion of which can be due to CO₂"=20 "Although the origin of these bands in the spectrum of Venus is = still=20 uncertain, they are not inconsistent with an assignment to C-H=20 [bands]."
S u l f u r i c A c i d	"In apparent contradiction to the = Venera 8=20 report concerning the presence of ammonia in the lower Cytherian=20 atmosphere, a proposal has been advanced by G. T. Sill and = developed=20 recently by A. T. Young that the cloud particles consist mainly of = 75=20 percent sulfuric acid [oil of vitriol] in water. At the = temperature of the=20 upper part of the clouds (ca. -23=B0C) 75 percent=20 H₂SO₄ [sulfuric acid] has a refractive index = of=20 1.44."	"As a liquid at [-23=B0C] it can be = expected to=20 exist as spherical droplets."=20 "Co-existence of free ammonia with ... sulfuric acid ... would = appear=20 to be contraindicated. Moreover, the view has been expressed [by = Kuiper et=20 al.] that sulfuric acid clouds must 'most certainly be rejected = due to=20 other complications this model would create.'"	"The short-wave length absorption of = Venus in=20 the near-ultraviolet, which produces the light yellowish color is=20 not accounted for by strong solutions of sulfuric=20 acid."			"75 percent sulfuric acid [exhibits] prominent=20 absorption bands at 9.5 and 11.2 microns."
"The infrared spectrum of Venus = exhibits a=20 significant amount of absorption in [the 6-8 and 10-14 micron] = regions...=20 absorption that is not due to CO₂, sulfuric acid, or = other=20 known constituents of the atmosphere. Assignment of at least a = portion of=20 this absorption to olefinic and/or other organic compounds is not=20 unreasonable."

Figure 1
Reprinted from Velikovsky Reconsidered = by=20 permission of the author.

Notes

1. [These replies to points one through = eight=20 were written in 1974. Quotations from Sagan's paper (with one noted = exception)=20 are from the version that Sagan distributed to the press in February, = 1974, at=20 the time of the AAAS Symposium. All of Velikovsky's quotations from the = 1974=20 paper are verbatim, but Sagan later reworded some of the passages = involved, as=20 he continued to rewrite and to expand. Sagan did not produce the = finished=20 version of his paper until February, 1976, over a year and one-half = after=20 Velikovsky had written these replies, and nearly two years after the = Symposium=20 itself--The Ed.]
2. Also see the article = by Eric=20 Crew, "Stability of Solid Cores in Gaseous Planets," KRONOS III: 1 = (August,=20 1977), pp. 22ff.--The Ed.
3. ["but not = lethal" in=20 the distributed 1974 version was deleted from the 1976 revision.]
4. Sagan is once again incorrect; Worlds in = Collision has=20 an entire Section on "Boiling Earth and Sea". The Zend-Avesta = says,=20 "The sea boiled, all the shores of the ocean boiled, all the middle of = it=20 boiled" (W in C, p. 92). Similar traditions are also cited on = p. 92.=20
5. See also my answer to W. C. Straka in = Pens=E9e II=20 (Fall, 1972), p. 16.
6. See R. E. Juergens, = "On the=20 Convection of Electric Charge by the Rotating Earth," KRONOS II: 3 = (February,=20 1977), pp. 12-30--The Ed.
7. See C. J. = Ransom,=20 "The Moon," KRONOS II: 1 (August, 1976), pp. 34-35--The Ed. =
8. Also see C. J. Ransom, The Age of Velikovsky=20 (Glassboro, 1976), pp. 79-82 - The Ed.
9. See=20 also K. K. Wong, "The Synthesis of Manna," Pens=E9e III = (Winter, 1973),=20 pp. 45-46. (See, too, M. G. Reade, "Manna as a Confection," SIS = Review=20 (Spring, 1976), pp. 9ff.--The Ed.]
10. = Cf.=20 Pens=E9e VI (Winter, 1973-74), p. 57.=20

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